These include real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, employment as measured by the household survey, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes, and industrial production. The determination of the months of peaks and troughs is based on a range of monthly measures of aggregate real economic activity published by the federal statistical agencies. For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.īecause a recession must influence the economy broadly and not be confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. That is, while each criterion needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria-depth, diffusion, and duration-as somewhat interchangeable. The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. The most recent trough occurred in April 2020.
According to the NBER chronology, the most recent peak occurred in February 2020. However, the time that it takes for the economy to return to its previous peak level of activity or its previous trend path may be quite extended. Expansion is the normal state of the economy most recessions are brief. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. A recession is the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point.
The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions. The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. Transportation Economics in the 21st Century.Training Program in Aging and Health Economics.The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health.Retirement and Disability Research Center.
Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems.Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population.Early Indicators of Later Work Levels, Disease and Death.Conference on Research in Income and Wealth.Boosting Grant Applications from Faculty at MSIs.Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship.International Finance and Macroeconomics.
0 kommentar(er)
